Regular Season - 8 · 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Thun vs Grasshoppers Super League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Full time0 1

Final score: FC Thun 0-1 Grasshoppers.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Thun, 29% draw, 33% Grasshoppers — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC Thun 1.43, Grasshoppers 1.28.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers

56%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 9%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Thun at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Thun0%Draw3%Grasshoppers97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Samuele Bengondo
Marco Burki
38'
G. Privitelli
45'
54'
🔁Amir Abrashiout: Kenzo Goudmijn
54'
🔁Nikolas Marcel Cristiano Muciout: Lee Young-Jun
54'
🔁Samuele Bengondoout: L. Plange
🔁Tom Strannegardout: Olivier Mambwa
55'
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Noah Christoffersson
55'
Olivier Mambwa
56'
58'
Kenzo Goudmijn
Nassim Zoukit
60'
60'
L. Plange
69'
🔁Óscar Clementeout: Giotto Morandi
🔁fabio saizout: Mattias Käit
71'
🔁Fabio Fehrout: Lucien Dähler
71'
🔁Nils·Reichmuthout: Nico Maier
82'
Niklas Steffen
86'
88'
Manex Gibelalde

Match stats — FC Thun vs Grasshoppers

61%Possession39%
20Shots17
0On target5
10Corners5

Line-ups

FC Thun 4-2-2-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 23M. BürkiD
  • 18T. StrannegårdD
  • 16J. RothM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 8F. SaizM
  • 9F. DursunF
  • 96B. LabeauF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 5N. BürgyD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 15P. KristalM
  • 14M. KäitM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli
Grasshoppers 4-3-3
  • 1M. HübelG
  • 28S. StroscioD
  • 58Yannik BettkoberD
  • 44B. PllanaD
  • 57Nico RissiD
  • 10Óscar ClementeM
  • 66Manex GibelaldeM
  • 6A. AbrashiM
  • 60S. BengondoF
  • 9N. MuciF
  • 17S. KrasniqiF
Substitutes
  • 55D. PapicM
  • 23S. MarquesM
  • 24K. GoudmijnM
  • 11G. MorandiM
  • 18Lee Young-JunF
  • 7L. PlangeF
  • 15A. DiabyD
  • 34A. ArigoniD
  • 71J. HammelG
Coach: P. Zeidler

Form going into FC Thun vs Grasshoppers

FC Thun

  • L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
  • D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
  • W4-3away to FC St. Gallen30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026

Grasshoppers

  • D2-2FC Zurich5 September 2026
  • W2-0FC St. Gallen2 September 2026
  • L2-5away to FC Vaduz30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Servette FC8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Thun72141118-77
8Grasshoppers72231014-48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers

  • 12 September 2026FC Thun 0–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
  • 14 March 2026FC Thun 5–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
  • 18 January 2026Grasshoppers 1–3 FC ThunSuper League
  • 30 August 2025FC Thun 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
  • 13 September 2024FC Thun 0–2 GrasshoppersSchweizer Cup
  • 31 May 2024FC Thun 1–2 GrasshoppersSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Thun and Grasshoppers

FC Thun

  • B. Labeau3 goals

Grasshoppers

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.43 goals for FC Thun and 1.28 for Grasshoppers; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Samuele Bengondo 23' (Grasshoppers).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.28 for Grasshoppers. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.52 for Grasshoppers.