FC Thun
vs
Grasshoppers
Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 0-1 Grasshoppers.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Thun, 29% draw, 33% Grasshoppers — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.43, Grasshoppers 1.28.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Thun vs Grasshoppers
Line-ups
- 1N. SteffenG
- 47F. FehrD
- 19J. BamertD
- 23M. BürkiD
- 18T. StrannegårdD
- 16J. RothM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 8F. SaizM
- 9F. DursunF
- 96B. LabeauF
- 25T. SpycherG
- 37L. DählerD
- 5N. BürgyD
- 2O. MambwaD
- 15P. KristalM
- 14M. KäitM
- 80S. LengenF
- 30N. MaierM
- 26N. ChristofferssonF
- 1M. HübelG
- 28S. StroscioD
- 58Yannik BettkoberD
- 44B. PllanaD
- 57Nico RissiD
- 10Óscar ClementeM
- 66Manex GibelaldeM
- 6A. AbrashiM
- 60S. BengondoF
- 9N. MuciF
- 17S. KrasniqiF
- 55D. PapicM
- 23S. MarquesM
- 24K. GoudmijnM
- 11G. MorandiM
- 18Lee Young-JunF
- 7L. PlangeF
- 15A. DiabyD
- 34A. ArigoniD
- 71J. HammelG
Form going into FC Thun vs Grasshoppers
FC Thun
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
- D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
- W4-3away to FC St. Gallen30 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
Grasshoppers
- D2-2FC Zurich5 September 2026
- W2-0FC St. Gallen2 September 2026
- L2-5away to FC Vaduz30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Servette FC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Thun | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Grasshoppers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers
- 12 September 2026FC Thun 0–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 14 March 2026FC Thun 5–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 18 January 2026Grasshoppers 1–3 FC ThunSuper League
- 30 August 2025FC Thun 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 13 September 2024FC Thun 0–2 GrasshoppersSchweizer Cup
- 31 May 2024FC Thun 1–2 GrasshoppersSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Thun and Grasshoppers
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Grasshoppers
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.43 goals for FC Thun and 1.28 for Grasshoppers; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Samuele Bengondo 23' (Grasshoppers).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.28 for Grasshoppers. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.52 for Grasshoppers.