FC Lugano
vs
BSC Young Boys
Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Lugano, 27% draw, 25% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.00, BSC Young Boys 1.12.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
Line-ups
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 22B. CastroF
- 18J. BichselD
- 7E. AlioskiD
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 14A. KendouciM
- 9A. AjetiF
- 23G. AjdinM
- 1M. KellerG
- 22I. SchmidtD
- 30S. LauperD
- 23L. BenitoD
- 33S. BukinacD
- 8A. GigovićM
- 6E. FernandesM
- 16C. FassnachtM
- 10A. SanchesM
- 7A. VirginiusM
- 99S. EssendeF
- 27L. BlumD
- 34E. EtoskiM
- 12Bahereba GuirassyF
- 17S. JankoD
- 4M. JenzD
- 52N. TschanzM
- 18J. MallG
- 13D. PechM
- 9K. SèneF
Form going into FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
BSC Young Boys
- D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
- D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
- W4-2FC Vaduz23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
- 12 September 2026FC Lugano 2–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 3 May 2026FC Lugano 1–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 22 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 21 December 2025FC Lugano 3–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 31 August 2025BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 24 May 2025FC Lugano 1–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende8 goals3 assists
- C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assists
- A. Sanches3 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.00 goals for FC Lugano and 1.12 for BSC Young Boys; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Daniel Dos Santos Correia 2' (FC Lugano), Samuel Essende 28' (BSC Young Boys), Christian Fassnacht 45' (BSC Young Boys), Albian Ajeti 80' (FC Lugano).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for FC Lugano against 1.12 for BSC Young Boys. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.64 for BSC Young Boys.