FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Lugano, 27% draw, 27% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
Line-ups
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 22B. CastroF
- 18J. BichselD
- 7E. AlioskiD
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 14A. KendouciM
- 9A. AjetiF
- 23G. AjdinM
- 1M. KellerG
- 22I. SchmidtD
- 30S. LauperD
- 23L. BenitoD
- 33S. BukinacD
- 8A. GigovićM
- 6E. FernandesM
- 16C. FassnachtM
- 10A. SanchesM
- 7A. VirginiusM
- 99S. EssendeF
- 27L. BlumD
- 34E. EtoskiM
- 12Bahereba GuirassyF
- 17S. JankoD
- 4M. JenzD
- 52N. TschanzM
- 18J. MallG
- 13D. PechM
- 9K. SèneF
Form going into FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
BSC Young Boys
Super League
- D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 18 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
- 3 May 2026FC Lugano 1–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 22 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 21 December 2025FC Lugano 3–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 31 August 2025BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 24 May 2025FC Lugano 1–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada51
- Daniel Dos Santos41
- H. Delcroix32
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende123
- C. Fassnacht51
- A. Sanches34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Lugano at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Dos Santos Correia 2' for FC Lugano, Samuel Essende 28' for BSC Young Boys, Christian Fassnacht 45' for BSC Young Boys, Albian Ajeti 80' for FC Lugano.
How the call on FC Lugano v BSC Young Boys has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is FC Lugano's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- FC Lugano win46%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −1
- BSC Young Boys win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.