Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Pohang Steelers.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Daejeon Citizen, 25% draw, 26% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
Line-ups
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 2K. ParkD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 30Kim Bong-SooM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeM
- 7M. IshidaM
- 19Seo Jin-SuM
- 9Diogo OliveiraF
- 31Kim Min-SooG
- 3Kim Min-DukD
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 16Lee Myung-JaeD
- 8Victor BobsinM
- 14Kim Jun-BeomM
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 17G. LudwigsonM
- 29G. Moon
- 29Hong Sung-minG
- 2Eo Jeong-WonD
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 4Jeon Min-kwangD
- 77WandersonD
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 40Ki Sung-YuengM
- 70Hwang Seo-WoongM
- 11J. da Rocha JuniorF
- 7Won Ki-JongF
- 25Jorge TeixeiraF
- 1Yun Pyeong-GukG
- 3Kim Ye-SungD
- 5Jin Si-woo
- 17Shin Kwang-HoonD
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 9J. AnF
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 18Cho Sang-HyeokF
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
Daejeon Citizen
All competitions we cover
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeju United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 August 2026
- W3-0Gangwon FC23 August 2026
Pohang Steelers
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Jeju United FC25 August 2026
- W3-0Bucheon FC 199522 August 2026
What these results say
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Daejeon Citizen had three goals or more.
- Daejeon Citizen won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 49 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira52
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Lee Ho-Jae40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Daejeon Citizen at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jorge Teixeira 48' for Pohang Steelers, J. da Rocha Junior 51' for Pohang Steelers, Victor Bobsin 84' for Daejeon Citizen, Lee Myung-Jae 88' for Daejeon Citizen.
How the call on Daejeon Citizen v Pohang Steelers has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 29% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Pohang Steelers's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Daejeon Citizen win49%=
- Draw25%▼ −4
- Pohang Steelers win26%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.