Daejeon Citizen
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Pohang Steelers.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Daejeon Citizen, 26% draw, 25% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 2.20, Pohang Steelers 1.20.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
Daejeon Citizen
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeju United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 August 2026
Pohang Steelers
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Jeju United FC25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 39 |
| 8 | Pohang Steelers | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers
Daejeon Citizen
- Jeong Jae-Hee4 goals1 assists
- M. Ishida3 goals1 assists
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
- Juninho Rocha3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.34 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.20 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.90 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.53 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.2 for Pohang Steelers. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.5 for Pohang Steelers.