Wrexham vs Watford Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Watford.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Wrexham, 21% draw, 22% Watford — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs Watford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Anthony PattersonG
- 26Zak VynerD
- 5Dominic HyamD
- 2Callum DoyleD
- 30Daniel ImrayM
- 8Ben WhitemanM
- 27Lewis O'BrienM
- 14George ThomasonM
- 20Oliver RathboneF
- 33Nathan BroadheadF
- 19Kieffer MooreF
- 21Danny WardG
- 24Dan ScarrD
- 4Max CleworthD
- 47Ryan LongmanM
- 15George DobsonM
- 37Matty JamesM
- 11Bailey CadamarteriF
- 7Davis Keillor-DunnF
- 28Sam SmithF
- 1Federico RavagliaG
- 23Omar Haktab TraoreD
- 6Matthew PollockD
- 4Kévin Keben BiakoloD
- 33Jordan ZemuraD
- 8Edoardo BoveM
- 5Hector KyprianouM
- 21Amin NabizadaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 7Othmane MaammaM
- 9Luca KjerrumgaardF
- 56Albert EamesD
- 26Daniel BachmannG
- 53James ClarridgeD
- 39Edo KayembeM
- 22Martín PayeroM
- 48Michael Adu-PokuF
- 52Leo Ramirez-EspainM
- 20Mamadou DoumbiaF
- 11Rocco VataF
Form going into Wrexham vs Watford
Wrexham
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026
Watford
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Southampton16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Watford
- 17 March 2026Watford 3–1 WrexhamChampionship
- 13 December 2025Wrexham 2–2 WatfordChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Watford
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wrexham and Watford drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wrexham at 57% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: L. Kjerrumgaard 14' for Watford, D. Imray 22' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 0.85–0.33.