QPR vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: QPR 0-0 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% QPR, 32% draw, 37% Bolton — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bolton at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — QPR vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pierce CharlesG
- 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
- 3Jimmy DunneD
- 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
- 2Kealey AdamsonD
- 20Harvey ValeM
- 5Ronnie EdwardsM
- 17Kwame PokuM
- 10Ilias ChairM
- 14Koki SaitoM
- 22Richard KoneF
- 13Calum WardG
- 19Dennis CirkinD
- 48Tariq LampteyD
- 24Nicolas MadsenM
- 40Jonathan VaraneM
- 11Paul SmythF
- 23Isak Alemayehu MulugetaM
- 16Rumarn BurrellF
- 15Alfie LloydF
- 1Jack BonhamG
- 5Lewis BruntD
- 3Chris ForinoD
- 14Akin FamewoD
- 25Max ConwayD
- 8Josh SheehanM
- 21Ethan ErhahonM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
- 45John McAteeM
- 11Thierry GaleM
- 10Sam DalbyF
- 6Ben DaviesD
- 23David HarringtonG
- 18Eoin ToalD
- 29Cyrus ChristieD
- 16Samuel Iling JuniorF
- 12David WatsonM
- 7Kyliane DongF
- 54Tobias RitchieM
- 39Ryan HardieF
Form going into QPR vs Bolton
QPR
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: QPR vs Bolton
- 30 March 2019QPR 1–2 BoltonChampionship
- 15 September 2018Bolton 1–2 QPRChampionship
- 17 February 2018QPR 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 21 October 2017Bolton 1–1 QPRChampionship
- 20 February 2016Bolton 1–1 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers: QPR and Bolton
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
QPR and Bolton drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bolton at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.97–0.06.