West Ham vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 1-2 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% West Ham, 21% draw, 13% Charlton — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs Charlton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Mads HermansenG
- 2Kyle Walker-PetersD
- 15Konstantinos MavropanosD
- 3Max KilmanD
- 30Oliver ScarlesD
- 20Jarrod BowenM
- 7Arne EngelsM
- 17Mohamadou KantéM
- 10Manor SolomonM
- 9Joël PiroeF
- 11Valentín CastellanosF
- 61Lewis OrfordM
- 23Alphonse AréolaG
- 58Airidas GolambeckisD
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 34Joël VeltmanD
- 14Divine MukasaM
- 21Keiber LamadridM
- 8James Ward-ProwseM
- 66Joshua AjalaF
- 13Arthur OkonkwoG
- 20Danny McNamaraD
- 5Lloyd JonesD
- 12Billy KoumetioD
- 17Amari'i BellD
- 6Conor CoventryM
- 15Nathaniel ChalobahM
- 9Karlan GrantM
- 14Sonny CareyM
- 7Tyreece CampbellM
- 11Miles LeaburnF
- 21Tiernan BrooksG
- 28Collins SichenjeD
- 18Ivan MesíkD
- 32Alan MwambaD
- 19Millenic AlliF
- 30Robert ApterM
- 8Harvey KnibbsM
- 26Joe Rankin-CostelloM
- 33Micah MbickF
Form going into West Ham vs Charlton
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Burnley16 August 2026
Charlton
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Derby15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs Charlton
- 15 September 2020West Ham 3–0 CharltonLeague Cup
Leading scorers: West Ham and Charlton
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlton won 2–1 at West Ham. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 66% and given a win for Charlton 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: L. Jones 7' for Charlton, T. Campbell 56' for Charlton, J. Piroe 74' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 0.47–0.39.