Southampton
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
The model makes it 65% Southampton, 21% draw, 14% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Southampton 2.06, Stoke City 0.86.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Stoke City
- 31 January 2026Stoke City 0–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 23 August 2025Southampton 1–2 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 October 2024Southampton 3–2 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 27 April 2024Southampton 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 3 October 2023Stoke City 0–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 3 March 2018Southampton 0–0 Stoke CityPremier League
The two sides
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.7 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Southampton and 0.86 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 0.99 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.81 and 1.10.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Southampton against 0.86 for Stoke City. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.1 for Stoke City.