Southampton vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Southampton, 25% draw, 21% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14James BreeD
- 15Nathan WoodD
- 5Jack StephensD
- 3Ryan ManningD
- 4Flynn DownesM
- 27Kuryu MatsukiM
- 18Tom FellowsM
- 10Finn AzazM
- 7Leo ScienzaM
- 9Cyle LarinF
- 25George LongG
- 17Joshua QuarshieD
- 34WelingtonD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 29Romeo AkachukwuM
- 23Samuel EdozieM
- 11Lewis DobbinF
- 28Divin MubamaF
- 19Cameron ArcherF
- 1Viktor JohanssonG
- 2Ben JohnsonD
- 16Ben WilmotD
- 23Ben GibsonD
- 17Eric BocatD
- 27Djibril SoumaréM
- 8Ethan GalbraithM
- 20Sam GallagherM
- 10Jun-Ho BaeM
- 7Sorba ThomasM
- 15George HirstF
- 24Joshua GriffithsG
- 5Luke GrahamD
- 40Maksym TalovierovD
- 52Laurence GianiD
- 6Svante IngelssonM
- 42Million ManhoefF
- 19Tomáš RigoM
- 4Ben PearsonM
- 9Róbert BoženíkF
Form going into Southampton vs Stoke City
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Stoke City
- 31 January 2026Stoke City 0–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 23 August 2025Southampton 1–2 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 October 2024Southampton 3–2 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 27 April 2024Southampton 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 3 October 2023Stoke City 0–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Stoke City
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: C. Larin 8' for Southampton, E. Galbraith 26' for Stoke City, D. Mubama 89' for Southampton, R. Manning (penalty) 90+4' for Southampton. Sent off: S. Ingelsson (Stoke City) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.57–0.54.