Uta Arad
vs
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 34% Uta Arad, 36% draw, 30% Corvinul Hunedoara — fair odds of 2.94, 2.78 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (20%).
Expected goals: Uta Arad 0.85, Corvinul Hunedoara 0.77.
Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Uta Arad
- D0-0Rapid7 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari1 August 2026
- D2-2Oțelul24 July 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova18 July 2026
Corvinul Hunedoara
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Farul Constanta25 July 2026
- W3-0Csikszereda20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Uta Arad | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Uta Arad carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.51 for Corvinul Hunedoara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Uta Arad L-D-L-D; Corvinul Hunedoara W-L-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Uta Arad and 0.77 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Uta Arad rate 0.38 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.59 and 1.19.
That points to 22% for over two and a half goals and 31% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (20%), 1-0 (16%), 0-1 (15%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Uta Arad against 0.77 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.38/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.19 for Corvinul Hunedoara.