Wrexham vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 2-1 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Wrexham, 29% draw, 33% Southampton — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs Southampton
Line-ups
- 22A. PattersonG
- 26Z. VynerD
- 5D. HyamD
- 2C. DoyleD
- 12I. KaboréM
- 18B. SheafM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 10J. WindassM
- 17C. O'HareM
- 19K. MooreF
- 6J. WorrallD
- 21D. WardG
- 28S. SmithF
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 47R. LongmanM
- 37M. JamesM
- 34A. JamesD
- 15G. DobsonM
- 11B. CadamarteriF
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 4F. DownesM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 34WelingtonD
- 5J. StephensD
- 28D. MubamaF
- 25G. LongG
- 18T. FellowsM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 6Z. AbbottD
Form going into Wrexham vs Southampton
Wrexham
All competitions we cover
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
- W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Southampton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Southampton
- 7 April 2026Wrexham 1–5 SouthamptonChampionship
- 9 August 2025Southampton 2–1 WrexhamChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Southampton
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore51
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wrexham beat Southampton 2–1. The model had made a win for Wrexham its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kieffer Moore 35' for Wrexham, James Ward-Prowse 50' for Southampton, Keven Schlotterbeck (own goal) 89' for Wrexham.
How the call on Wrexham v Southampton has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Wrexham's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Wrexham win38%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Southampton win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.