Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stoke City 2-1 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Stoke City, 28% draw, 28% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stoke City at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd
Line-ups
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 11L. CisséF
- 13J. DevennyF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 23B. GibsonD
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 21L. BombinoD
- 19T. RigoM
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 15G. HirstF
- 20S. GallagherF
- 1M. CooperG
- 33J. BaptisteD
- 5J. TangangaD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 8H. ChoudhuryM
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 30R. Norrington-DaviesM
- 4O. ArblasterM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 45P. BamfordF
- 11R. DonovanM
- 10J. AyewF
- 9T. CannonF
- 7J. RothwellM
- 19T. ChongM
- 25M. McGuinnessD
- 2M. DohertyD
- 16J. ShackletonD
- 17A. DaviesG
Form going into Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
- W3-2Bolton1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cardiff29 August 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd
- 29 December 2025Stoke City 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 6 December 2025Sheffield Utd 4–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 25 April 2025Stoke City 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 26 October 2024Sheffield Utd 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 14 January 2023Sheffield Utd 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Sheffield Utd
Stoke City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stoke City beat Sheffield Utd 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Stoke City at 44%. The goals: Kalvin Phillips 51' for Sheffield Utd, Jack Mcglynn 78' for Stoke City, Sam Gallagher 86' for Stoke City.
How the call on Stoke City v Sheffield Utd has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Stoke City's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Stoke City win44%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Sheffield Utd win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.