Universitatea Craiova
vs
FCSB
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 2–1 FCSB
The model makes it 48% Universitatea Craiova, 27% draw, 25% FCSB — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.02, FCSB 1.15.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Universitatea Craiova wins, grey are draws, red are FCSB wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
- W3-1FC Voluntari23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Oțelul16 August 2026
FCSB
- D2-2Petrolul Ploiesti14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
- L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 7 | FCSB | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB
- 15 February 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–0 FCSBLiga I
- 12 February 2026Universitatea Craiova 2–2 FCSBCupa României
- 5 October 2025FCSB 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 17 May 2025FCSB 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 13 April 2025Universitatea Craiova 0–0 FCSBLiga I
- 9 March 2025FCSB 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and FCSB
Universitatea Craiova
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
FCSB
- D. Bîrligea3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.43 for FCSB. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.15 for FCSB. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.80 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FCSB rate 0.67 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Craiova a 26.4% chance of the title and FCSB 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 1.15 for FCSB. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.55 for FCSB.