Wolves
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
The model makes it 53% Wolves, 22% draw, 25% Blackburn — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wolves 2.02, Blackburn 1.35.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Blackburn
- 9 February 2025Blackburn 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
- 22 April 2017Wolves 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 29 October 2016Blackburn 1–1 WolvesChampionship
- 9 April 2016Wolves 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 8 August 2015Blackburn 1–2 WolvesChampionship
- 11 January 2015Blackburn 0–1 WolvesChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wolves carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.76 for Blackburn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Wolves and 1.35 for Blackburn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolves rate 0.99 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackburn rate 0.90 and 1.08.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Wolves against 1.35 for Blackburn. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.08 for Blackburn.