Wolves vs Blackburn Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 2-2 Blackburn.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Wolves, 22% draw, 25% Blackburn — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Blackburn
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Daniel BentleyG
- 2Kieran TrippierD
- 15Yerson MosqueraD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 6David Møller WolfeD
- 28Fer LópezM
- 7AndréM
- 5Marshall MunetsiM
- 21Rodrigo GomesF
- 10Adam ArmstrongF
- 36Mateus ManéF
- 9Raúl JiménezF
- 20Tommy DoyleM
- 38Jackson TchatchouaD
- 17Pedro LimaD
- 23Tawanda ChirewaF
- 1José SáG
- 4Santiago BuenoD
- 34Nasser DjigaD
- 74Tom EdozieF
- 22Balázs TóthG
- 2Ryan AlebiosuD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15Sean McLoughlinD
- 3Harry PickeringD
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 28Adam ForshawM
- 25Ryoya MorishitaM
- 10Todd CantwellM
- 21Oladapo AfolayanM
- 9Andri GuðjohnsenF
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 11Jayden FevrierF
- 23Yuki OhashiF
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 30Jake GarrettM
- 1Aynsley PearsG
- 17Hayden CarterD
- 5Sidnei TavaresM
- 18Axel HenrikssonM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Blackburn
- 9 February 2025Blackburn 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
- 22 April 2017Wolves 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 29 October 2016Blackburn 1–1 WolvesChampionship
- 9 April 2016Wolves 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 8 August 2015Blackburn 1–2 WolvesChampionship
Leading scorers: Wolves and Blackburn
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wolves and Blackburn drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Wolves at 53% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Marshall Munetsi 18' for Wolves, Sean McLoughlin 27' for Blackburn, Andri Guðjohnsen 48' for Blackburn, Raúl Jiménez (penalty) 90+3' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 2.04–0.82.