Arges Pitesti
vs
Farul Constanta
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 68% Arges Pitesti, 17% draw, 15% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 2.71, Farul Constanta 1.27.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arges Pitesti
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
Farul Constanta
- W3-2Csikszereda8 August 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB3 August 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arges Pitesti | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Farul Constanta | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Arges Pitesti
No league goals recorded yet.
Farul Constanta
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
- E. Rădăslăvescu2 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arges Pitesti carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.37 for Farul Constanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arges Pitesti L-W-W; Farul Constanta L-W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.27 for Farul Constanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arges Pitesti rate 0.69 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farul Constanta rate 0.76 and 2.08.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Farul Constanta, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arges Pitesti the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 1.27 for Farul Constanta. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/2.08 for Farul Constanta.