Lask Linz
vs
Ried
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 79% Lask Linz, 12% draw, 9% Ried — fair odds of 1.27, 8.33 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Lask Linz 3.45, Ried 1.17.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lask Linz
- W3-0Grazer AK31 July 2026
Ried
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 | Ried | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Lask Linz
- S. Adeniran2 goals
Ried
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lask Linz carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.21 for Ried. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lask Linz W; Ried D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.45 goals for Lask Linz and 1.17 for Ried. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lask Linz rate 0.84 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ried rate 0.59 and 2.17.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.45 expected goals for Lask Linz against 1.17 for Ried. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.17 for Ried.