Lask Linz vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Lask Linz 4-1 Ried.
Before kick-off the model made it 85% Lask Linz, 9% draw, 6% Ried — fair odds of 1.18, 11.11 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lask Linz at 85%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lask Linz vs Ried
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43J. TornichD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 20K. P. Molgaard JorgensenM
- 10R. LjubicicM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 2G. BelloM
- 8M. UsorF
- 7S. AdeniranF
- 33T. SchutzenauerG
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 21M. Verhaeghe
- 29F. FleckerF
- 9K. DanekM
- 27C. LangF
- 18A. SchopfM
- 45N. KaneM
- 1A. LeitnerG
- 5D. RadonjicD
- 28S. ChukwudiD
- 30O. SteurerD
- 4L. MalicsekM
- 6Y. MaartM
- 22S. SchwabM
- 7O. SorgM
- 12A. BajicF
- 47E. E. AisowierenF
- 9P. Sissoko
- 77F. WimmerG
- 25D. KirnbauerD
- 33A. GoigingerD
- 26J. MayerM
- 10J. NasraweM
- 8M. RasnerM
- 19T. Lund-JensenM
- 21T. KusanovicF
- 15J. Boguo
Form going into Lask Linz vs Ried
Lask Linz
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna9 August 2026
- W3-0Grazer AK31 July 2026
Ried
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 25 |
| 6 | Ried | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Ried
- 18 March 2026Ried 1–2 Lask LinzCup
- 14 February 2026Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 30 August 2025Lask Linz 1–3 RiedBundesliga
- 21 March 2025Lask Linz 1–1 RiedFriendlies Clubs
- 18 February 2023Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Ried
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang80
- S. Adeniran62
- M. Usor33
Ried
GoalsAssists
- S. Schwab42
- P. Pomer41
- I. Kiese Thelin40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lask Linz beat Ried 4–1. The model had made a win for Lask Linz its most likely outcome, at 85%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: P. Sissoko 8' for Ried, S. Adeniran 10' for Lask Linz, M. Usor 18' for Lask Linz, S. Adeniran 27' for Lask Linz, C. Lang 57' for Lask Linz. Sent off: Robert Ljubičić (Lask Linz) 74'. On expected goals it finished 2.12–0.80.