WSG Wattens
vs
Grazer AK
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: WSG Wattens 1–0 Grazer AK
The model makes it 40% WSG Wattens, 28% draw, 32% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: WSG Wattens 1.44, Grazer AK 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- WSG Wattens are 9th on 8 points from 8 games; Grazer AK are 7th on 9 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- WSG Wattens are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Ried.
- Grazer AK are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Grazer AK 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Grazer AK 4–0 WSG Wattens.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts WSG Wattens at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
- L1-2Ried10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Rapid Vienna18 September 2026
- D2-2TSV Hartberg13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Austria Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Austria Lustenau28 August 2026
Grazer AK
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
What these results say
- WSG Wattens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for WSG Wattens had three goals or more.
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
WSG Wattens
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
Grazer AK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK
- 2 May 2026Grazer AK 4–0 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 21 March 2026WSG Wattens 1–5 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 8 March 2026WSG Wattens 2–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 16 August 2025Grazer AK 1–1 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 23 May 2025WSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 29 March 2025Grazer AK 0–0 WSG WattensBundesliga
Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
GoalsAssists
- N. Frederiksen30
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
WSG Wattens carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.3 for Grazer AK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for WSG Wattens and 1.25 for Grazer AK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
WSG Wattens rate 0.55 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grazer AK rate 0.54 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Grazer AK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives WSG Wattens the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for WSG Wattens against 1.25 for Grazer AK. WSG Wattens's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.62 for Grazer AK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
WSG Wattens at home · Grazer AK away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WSG WattensGrazer AK
WSG Wattens are 9th after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); Grazer AK are 5th after 8 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: WSG Wattens 8, Grazer AK 8.
WSG Wattens score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Grazer AK have let in 1 there.
Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); WSG Wattens have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
WSG Wattens
- at Lask Linz31 Oct · Bundesligawin 14%
- vs Austria Vienna8 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs Austria Lustenau21 Nov · Bundesligawin 43%
- at Sturm Graz29 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
Grazer AK
- vs TSV Hartberg30 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- at Austria Lustenau7 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Rapid Vienna21 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- vs SCR Altach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.