Willem II
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Willem II 2–1 Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 41% Willem II, 28% draw, 31% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Willem II 1.64, Fortuna Sittard 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Willem II wins, grey are draws, red are Fortuna Sittard wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Willem II at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Willem II
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
- 27 April 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 20 October 2024Willem II 0–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 13 March 2022Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 22 October 2021Willem II 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 16 May 2021Willem II 2–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 5 December 2020Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
Leading scorers: Willem II and Fortuna Sittard
Willem II
- D. Haen3 goals
Fortuna Sittard
- M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
- L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.57 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Willem II and 1.25 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.71 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.80 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortuna Sittard, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Willem II a 0% chance of the title and Fortuna Sittard 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Willem II the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Willem II against 1.25 for Fortuna Sittard. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.42 for Fortuna Sittard.