Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Willem II, 29% draw, 32% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Willem II at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Line-ups
- 26M. DelangheG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 50E. GürbüzM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 32V. van CrooijM
- 22Per van LoonM
- 21W. van der SteenG
- 83M. LemmensD
- 2A. CiranniD
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 17O. MartinF
- 10J. SchuurmanM
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 52M. IhattarenF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 7K. PetersonF
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 15N. de GrootD
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
Form going into Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Willem II
Eredivisie
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 2 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
- 27 April 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 20 October 2024Willem II 0–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 13 March 2022Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 22 October 2021Willem II 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 16 May 2021Willem II 2–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Willem II and Fortuna Sittard
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- A. Descotte50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortuna Sittard won 1–0 at Willem II. The model had leaned towards a win for Willem II at 39% and given a win for Fortuna Sittard 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Philip Brittijn 79' for Fortuna Sittard.
How the call on Willem II v Fortuna Sittard has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Willem II's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Willem II win39%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Fortuna Sittard win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.