19 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ajax vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ajax 2-2 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Ajax, 29% draw, 28% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ajax at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajax5%Draw92%Excelsior3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Caio Henriqueout: Owen Wijndal
23'
⚽Julian Brandtassist: Kasper Dolberg
32'
35'
Jan Plug
45+1'
⚽Lennard Hartjes
🔁Viktor Tsygankovout: Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
61'
🔁Kasper Dolbergout: Tolu Arokodare
62'
62'
⚽Aymen slitiassist: Irakli Yegoian
⚽Tolu Arokodareassist: Oscar Gloukh
64'
65'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Kasey Bos
71'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Ilano Silva Timas
71'
🔁Aymen slitiout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
🔁Jorthy Mokioout: Sofyan Amrabat
76'
🔁Davy Klaassenout: Abdellah Ouazane
77'
Oscar Gloukh
85'
85'
Irakli Yegoian
85'
🔁David Gardenout: Mario Domínguez Franco

Match stats — Ajax vs Excelsior

81%Possession19%
33Shots4
8On target2
9Corners0

Line-ups

Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 6T. KehrerD
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 8J. BrandtM
  • 11V. TsygankovF
  • 9K. DolbergF
  • 10O. GloukhF
Substitutes
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 4S. AmrabatM
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 43Rayane BounidaF
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
Coach: Míchel
Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 3R. MeissenM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 19D. GardenF
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
  • 16Celton BiaiG
  • 12K. BosF
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 22O. TurayD
Coach: R. den Uil

Form going into Ajax vs Excelsior

Ajax

Eredivisie

  • W5-1Willem II15 September 2026

Excelsior

Eredivisie

  • L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ajax106312913+1621
13Excelsior103251619-311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ajax vs Excelsior

  • 1 February 2026Excelsior 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 22 November 2025Ajax 1–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 24 April 2024Ajax 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 19 August 2023Excelsior 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 29 January 2023Excelsior 1–4 AjaxEredivisie

The full Ajax vs Excelsior record →

Leading scorers: Ajax and Excelsior

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brandt62
  • T. Arokodare51

Excelsior

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax and Excelsior drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajax at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Julian Brandt 32' for Ajax, Lennard Hartjes 45+1' for Excelsior, Aymen sliti 62' for Excelsior, Tolu Arokodare 64' for Ajax.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.