ADO Den Haag
vs
Cambuur
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: ADO Den Haag 2–1 Cambuur
The model makes it 37% ADO Den Haag, 29% draw, 34% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.44, Cambuur 1.31.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are ADO Den Haag wins, grey are draws, red are Cambuur wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ADO Den Haag at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur
ADO Den Haag
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
- L1-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 August 2026
- L1-4Groningen16 August 2026
Cambuur
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 |
| 15 | Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur
- 16 January 2026ADO Den Haag 1–2 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025Cambuur 2–0 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 2 May 2025ADO Den Haag 3–4 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 7 December 2024Cambuur 2–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 29 October 2024ADO Den Haag 1–4 CambuurKNVB Beker
- 5 April 2024Cambuur 0–2 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Cambuur
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
- R. El Arguioui4 goals
- I. Hamache3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.64 for Cambuur. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.31 for Cambuur. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.68 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambuur rate 0.85 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cambuur, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ADO Den Haag the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.31 for Cambuur. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.3 for Cambuur.