Boulogne
vs
Nantes
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Boulogne 0–1 Nantes
The model makes it 28% Boulogne, 30% draw, 42% Nantes — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Boulogne 1.04, Nantes 1.51.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Boulogne vs Nantes
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Boulogne wins, grey are draws, red are Nantes wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nantes at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Boulogne vs Nantes
Boulogne
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot11 September 2026
- D1-1Dijon4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Montpellier28 August 2026
- D1-1RED Star FC 9321 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guingamp14 August 2026
Nantes
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Laval14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Boulogne | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | Nantes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Nantes
- 16 March 2012Nantes 3–3 BoulogneLigue 2
- 24 October 2011Boulogne 2–1 NantesLigue 2
- 4 April 2011Nantes 1–2 BoulogneLigue 2
- 18 October 2010Boulogne 0–0 NantesLigue 2
Leading scorers: Boulogne and Nantes
Boulogne
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Nantes
- W. Younoussa2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Boulogne carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.75 for Nantes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Boulogne and 1.51 for Nantes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boulogne rate 0.58 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nantes rate 0.90 and 1.10.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Boulogne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Boulogne against 1.51 for Nantes. Boulogne's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.1 for Nantes.