Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sparta Rotterdam, 28% draw, 28% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Rotterdam at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Line-ups
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6J. BaasM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 7C. TerhoM
- 10I. BabadiM
- 11Joel IdehoM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 30P. KuiperG
- 16Teo QuinteroD
- 12B. ReithD
- 18A. RoaldsøyM
- 21J. ToornstraM
- 14N. VerschurenD
- 22G. VianelloD
- 17Robin van CruijsenM
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 14L. SmansM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 11L. OyenF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 29L. MachineF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 21M. FarjiF
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
- 28 February 2026Heerenveen 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 December 2025Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 12 April 2025Sparta Rotterdam 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 26 October 2024Heerenveen 2–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 19 May 2024Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld61
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen won 4–0 at Sparta Rotterdam. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Rotterdam at 44% and given a win for Heerenveen 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nolhan courtens 28' for Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow 43' for Heerenveen, Maxence Rivera 56' for Heerenveen, Marko Farji 75' for Heerenveen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.