Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Heerenveen
The model makes it 44% Sparta Rotterdam, 28% draw, 28% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.76, Heerenveen 1.16.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sparta Rotterdam wins, grey are draws, red are Heerenveen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Rotterdam at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
Heerenveen
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
- 28 February 2026Heerenveen 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 December 2025Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 12 April 2025Sparta Rotterdam 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 26 October 2024Heerenveen 2–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 19 May 2024Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 27 August 2023Heerenveen 1–3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists
Heerenveen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sparta Rotterdam carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.61 for Heerenveen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.16 for Heerenveen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.91 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heerenveen rate 0.73 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heerenveen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Rotterdam a 0% chance of the title and Heerenveen 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.16 for Heerenveen. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.19 for Heerenveen.