Guingamp
vs
RED Star FC 93
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Guingamp 2–1 RED Star FC 93
The model makes it 41% Guingamp, 28% draw, 31% RED Star FC 93 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.65, RED Star FC 93 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Guingamp wins, grey are draws, red are RED Star FC 93 wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guingamp at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93
Guingamp
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026
- W1-0Boulogne14 August 2026
RED Star FC 93
- W1-0Metz14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne21 August 2026
- D0-0Sochaux14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Guingamp | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | RED Star FC 93 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93
- 10 July 2026Guingamp 1–0 RED Star FC 93Friendlies Clubs
- 24 April 2026RED Star FC 93 3–2 GuingampLigue 2
- 23 August 2025Guingamp 0–4 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 1 March 2025RED Star FC 93 3–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 30 August 2024Guingamp 3–4 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and RED Star FC 93
Guingamp
- D. Gomis2 goals1 assists
- S. Kielt2 goals
RED Star FC 93
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.4 for RED Star FC 93. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Guingamp and 1.25 for RED Star FC 93. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.65 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RED Star FC 93 rate 0.63 and 1.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RED Star FC 93, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0% chance of the title and RED Star FC 93 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.25 for RED Star FC 93. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.56 for RED Star FC 93.