Groningen
vs
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 2–1 PEC Zwolle
The model makes it 49% Groningen, 27% draw, 24% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.98, PEC Zwolle 1.06.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Groningen wins, grey are draws, red are PEC Zwolle wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Groningen
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
- W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026
PEC Zwolle
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
- L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
- 13 March 2026PEC Zwolle 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 23 November 2025Groningen 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 18 May 2025PEC Zwolle 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 8 December 2024Groningen 0–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 5 August 2023PEC Zwolle 0–0 GroningenFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2022PEC Zwolle 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and PEC Zwolle
Groningen
- B. Willumsson4 goals
- T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.57 for PEC Zwolle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Groningen and 1.06 for PEC Zwolle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.95 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PEC Zwolle rate 0.73 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Groningen a 0.2% chance of the title and PEC Zwolle 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Groningen against 1.06 for PEC Zwolle. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.28 for PEC Zwolle.