Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Groningen, 27% draw, 25% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Line-ups
- 1E. VaessenG
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 24P. ClementM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 11J. OndrejkaM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 20Nils EggensF
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 53J. HallM
- 33H. HateboerD
- 18T. LandM
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 16A. NordinM
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 2S. FloranusD
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 25T. OostingM
- 8T. SommerM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 42Dylan RuwardD
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 16T. de GraaffG
Form going into Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Groningen
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 15 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
- 13 March 2026PEC Zwolle 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 23 November 2025Groningen 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 18 May 2025PEC Zwolle 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 8 December 2024Groningen 0–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 5 August 2023PEC Zwolle 0–0 GroningenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Groningen and PEC Zwolle
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson80
- T. van Bergen63
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3–0. The model had made a win for Groningen its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Thom Van Bergen 20' for Groningen, Jorg Schreuders 43' for Groningen, Tygo Land 68' for Groningen.
How the call on Groningen v PEC Zwolle has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Groningen's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Groningen win48%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −1
- PEC Zwolle win25%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.