Regular Season - 9 · 3 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Wigan vs Mansfield Town League One prediction

DW Stadium, Wigan

Our model says: Wigan 0–1 Mansfield Town

The model makes it 29% Wigan, 29% draw, 42% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Wigan 1.10, Mansfield Town 1.42.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,592 settled matches.

Edge to Mansfield Town: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Wigan's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Mansfield Town's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,269 matches.

Key facts

  • Wigan are 21st on 10 points from 13 games; Mansfield Town are 12th on 18 points from 12 games — League One.
  • Wigan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Bromley.
  • Mansfield Town have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Notts County.
  • Last 5 meetings: Wigan 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Wigan 2–1 Mansfield Town.

More League One predictions

All League One predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Wigan vs Mansfield Town

51%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Wigan win Draw Mansfield Town win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Wigan first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Mansfield Town at 42%: of 2,595 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.7% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Wigan vs Mansfield Town

Wigan

League One

  • W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Oxford United20 October 2026
  • W1-0Reading17 October 2026

Mansfield Town

League One

  • L0-2Notts County31 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
  • W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
  • D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
  • W2-1Bromley10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Wigan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Wigan had three goals or more.
  • Mansfield Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Wigan133191122-1110
12Mansfield Town125342018+218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Wigan

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 51% today

Win 41%
Draw 53%
Defeat 55%

Mansfield Town

Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today

Win 9%
Draw 6%
Defeat 5%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Wigan vs Mansfield Town

  • 11 April 2026Wigan 2–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • 25 October 2025Mansfield Town 1–1 WiganLeague One
  • 4 March 2025Mansfield Town 0–0 WiganLeague One
  • 14 January 2025Mansfield Town 0–2 WiganFA Cup
  • 22 October 2024Wigan 1–2 Mansfield TownLeague One

Leading scorers: Wigan and Mansfield Town

Wigan

No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Mansfield Town

GoalsAssists

  • M. Smith62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wigan a 0% chance of the title and Mansfield Town 2.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Wigan v Mansfield Town has moved

First published on 23 Sep at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Wigan win29%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Mansfield Town win42%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Wigan Mansfield Town
0.42 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
1.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.71
1.10 Model expected goals (this match) 1.42

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Wigan against 1.42 for Mansfield Town. Wigan's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for Mansfield Town.

Wigan carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.34 for Mansfield Town.

How the model reaches 42% for Mansfield Town to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mansfield Town to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wigan's ratings add 6 points and Mansfield Town's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. Wigan's ratings36%+6
  5. Mansfield Town's ratings42%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

WiganMansfield Town
13Matches12
3W 1D 9LRecord5W 3D 4L
11 0.8 per gameGoals scored20 1.7 per game
22 1.7 per gameGoals conceded18 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets2 of 12
7 of 13Failed to score4 of 12
–Penalties scored0 of 1
38 2.9 per gameYellow cards24 2.0 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape3-1-4-2 12×

Wigan at home · Mansfield Town away

6Played6
3W 0D 3LRecord2W 1D 3L
7–10Goals for – against10–11
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Wigan 13, Mansfield Town 12.

Wigan scored 021250
Mansfield Town conceded 045324

Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Mansfield Town have let in 2 there.

Mansfield Town scored 082532
Wigan conceded 433425

Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Wigan have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Wigan

  • vs Barnsley14 Nov · League Onewin 39%
  • at Blackpool21 Nov · League Onewin 26%
  • vs Plymouth28 Nov · League Onewin 29%
  • at Burton Albion1 Dec · League Onewin 25%
  • at Luton12 Dec · League Onewin 19%

Mansfield Town

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.