Leyton Orient
vs
Cambridge United
League One prediction
Our model says: Leyton Orient 1–0 Cambridge United
The model makes it 37% Leyton Orient, 29% draw, 34% Cambridge United — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.35, Cambridge United 1.26.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Leyton Orient and Cambridge United are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leyton Orient are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Cambridge United are 5th on 19 points from 10 games — League One.
- Leyton Orient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Blackpool.
- Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Barnsley.
- Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2025, ended Cambridge United 1–2 Leyton Orient.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leyton Orient at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
Leyton Orient
- W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026
- L0-2Plymouth3 October 2026
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
Cambridge United
- W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026
- W1-0Blackpool10 October 2026
- D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leyton Orient had two goals or fewer.
- Cambridge United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leyton Orient
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Cambridge United
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
- 21 April 2025Cambridge United 1–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 29 December 2024Leyton Orient 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 1 January 2024Cambridge United 0–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 26 August 2023Leyton Orient 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 20 April 2021Leyton Orient 2–4 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 26 December 2020Cambridge United 2–1 Leyton OrientLeague Two
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Cambridge United
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
- Y. Akhamrich32
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leyton Orient carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.35 for Cambridge United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.26 for Cambridge United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leyton Orient rate 0.54 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambridge United rate 0.60 and 1.64.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cambridge United, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 0.8% chance of the title and Cambridge United 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leyton Orient the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 1.26 for Cambridge United. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.64 for Cambridge United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leyton Orient at home · Cambridge United away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leyton Orient 9, Cambridge United 10.
Leyton Orient score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Cambridge United have let in 0 there.
Cambridge United score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Leyton Orient
- at Doncaster14 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- vs AFC Wimbledon21 Nov · League Onewin 52%
Cambridge United
- at Luton14 Nov · League Onewin 32%
- vs Stockport County21 Nov · League Onewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.