West Brom
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Brom 1–0 Birmingham
The model makes it 37% West Brom, 32% draw, 31% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: West Brom 1.15, Birmingham 0.97.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: West Brom vs Birmingham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into West Brom vs Birmingham
West Brom
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
Birmingham
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
- West Brom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Birmingham.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Birmingham
- 10 February 2026Birmingham 0–0 West BromChampionship
- 26 November 2025West Brom 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 3 August 2024Birmingham 4–1 West BromFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2024West Brom 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 6 October 2023Birmingham 3–1 West BromChampionship
- 10 February 2023Birmingham 2–0 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and Birmingham
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Birmingham
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.58 for Birmingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for West Brom and 0.97 for Birmingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 0.62 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Birmingham rate 0.72 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 2.7% chance of the title and Birmingham 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for West Brom against 0.97 for Birmingham. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.23 for Birmingham.