West Brom vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 0-1 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% West Brom, 31% draw, 31% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Brom at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs Birmingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 2C. MephamD
- 4C. StylesD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 7F. MyhreM
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 11J. MorganF
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 23T. BanyF
- 6G. CampbellD
- 35M. CrowtherM
- 13M. IngramG
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 21I. PriceM
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 23D. FryD
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 10D. GrayF
- 2E. LairdD
- 16P. RobertsM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
- 18M. BirdM
- 21R. AllsopG
Form going into West Brom vs Birmingham
West Brom
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
Birmingham
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
- West Brom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Birmingham.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Birmingham
- 10 February 2026Birmingham 0–0 West BromChampionship
- 26 November 2025West Brom 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 3 August 2024Birmingham 4–1 West BromFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2024West Brom 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 6 October 2023Birmingham 3–1 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and Birmingham
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Birmingham won 1–0 at West Brom. The model had leaned towards a win for West Brom at 38% and given a win for Birmingham 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: August Priske (penalty) 41' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Brom a 12.2% chance to finish in the top four: 14.8% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For Birmingham the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.7% going in: 15.5% after a win, 11.7% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.