10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Watford vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

Vicarage Road, Watford
Referee: Andy Madley, England
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Watford, 29% draw, 44% Burnley — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burnley at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Watford0%Draw1%Burnley99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Jacob Bruun Larsenassist: Reo Hatate
19'
⚽Zeki Amdouni
25'
⚽Reo Hatateassist: Lucas Pires Silva
🔁Iker Bravoout: Othmane Maamma
35'
🔁Soumaula Coulibalyout: Jordan Zemura
45'
🔁Luca Kjerrumgaardout: Martin Payero
45'
🔁Amin Nabizadaout: Myron Boadu
60'
62'
🔁Zeki Amdouniout: Marcus Edwards
63'
🔁Largie Ramazaniout: Jamie Vardy
🔁Mamadou Doumbiaout: Rocco Vata
69'
74'
🔁Jacob Bruun Larsenout: Dastan Satpaev
84'
🔁Max Alleyneout: Armando Broja
87'
⚽Marcus Edwardsassist: Lucas Pires Silva

Match stats — Watford vs Burnley

52%Possession48%
14Shots17
6On target8
6Corners2
0.64xG1.86

Goals against chances

Watford0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Burnley4 from 1.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Watford 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. RavagliaG
  • 23O. TraoréD
  • 6M. PollockD
  • 29Branimir MlačićD
  • 3S. CoulibalyD
  • 39E. KayembeM
  • 5H. KyprianouM
  • 20M. DoumbiaM
  • 17Iker BravoM
  • 21Amin NabizadaM
  • 9L. KjerrumgaardF
Substitutes
  • 11R. VataF
  • 33J. ZemuraD
  • 26D. BachmannG
  • 10M. BoaduF
  • 16M. BolaD
  • 4K. KebenD
  • 7O. MaammaF
  • 45S. MavididiF
  • 22M. PayeroM
Coach: A. Dionisi
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 44IgorD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 7J. Bruun LarsenM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 10M. EdwardsF
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 12D. SatpaevF
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 9J. VardyF
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 27A. BrojaF
Coach: N. Hayen

Form going into Watford vs Burnley

Watford

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
  • L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
  • W2-1Preston8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026

Burnley

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Derby19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
  • L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Watford154381323-1015
22Burnley151772231-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Watford vs Burnley

  • 18 April 2025Watford 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 21 December 2024Burnley 2–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 14 February 2023Burnley 1–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 12 August 2022Watford 1–0 BurnleyChampionship
  • 30 April 2022Watford 1–2 BurnleyPremier League

The full Watford vs Burnley record →

The result against the call

Burnley won 4–0 at Watford. The model had made a win for Burnley its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jacob Bruun Larsen 13' for Burnley, Zeki Amdouni 19' for Burnley, Reo Hatate 25' for Burnley, Marcus Edwards 87' for Burnley. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Watford a 40.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.0% after a win, 39.1% after a draw, 43.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.3%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

For Burnley the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.9% going in: 18.9% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 13.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.9%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Watford v Burnley has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 29% / 44%: the biggest move is Burnley's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Watford win27%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Burnley win44%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.