Watford
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 0–1 Burnley
The model makes it 29% Watford, 30% draw, 41% Burnley — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Watford 1.01, Burnley 1.40.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Watford vs Burnley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Watford vs Burnley
Watford
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
Burnley
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
What these results say
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Burnley
- 18 April 2025Watford 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 21 December 2024Burnley 2–1 WatfordChampionship
- 14 February 2023Burnley 1–1 WatfordChampionship
- 12 August 2022Watford 1–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 30 April 2022Watford 1–2 BurnleyPremier League
- 5 February 2022Burnley 0–0 WatfordPremier League
Leading scorers: Watford and Burnley
Watford
- Amin Nabizada3 goals
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Watford carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.69 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Watford and 1.40 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 0.57 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.85 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Watford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Watford a 0.1% chance of the title and Burnley 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Watford against 1.4 for Burnley. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.17 for Burnley.