10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cheltenham vs Salford City League Two prediction & result

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Cheltenham 0-2 Salford City.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cheltenham, 27% draw, 37% Salford City — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Salford City at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cheltenham0%Draw3%Salford City97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Freddie willcox
6'
Jake Evans
20'
45'
🔁Ryan Graydonout: Kallum Cesay
49'
Abraham Odoh
56'
Luke Molyneux
Jonathan Tomkinson
57'
Jordan Shipley
64'
71'
Will Aimson
76'
🔁Abraham Odohout: Luke Garbutt
Ben Stevenson
78'
84'
⚽Jorge Grant
🔁Ryan Broomout: George Miller
85'
Andreas Weimann
85'
🔁Jake Evansout: George Nurse
87'
87'
🔁Luke Molyneuxout: Nathan Asiimwe
🔁Jordan Shipleyout: K. Otchere
90+2'
90+3'
⚽Jorge Grantassist: Kallum Cesay
90+5'
🔁Macaulay Langstaffout: Daniel Udoh
90+5'
🔁Brendan Sarpeng-Wireduout: Matt·Butcher
90+7'
Luke Garbutt

Match stats — Cheltenham vs Salford City

49%Possession51%
4Shots12
0On target3
4Corners4
0.33xG0.81

Goals against chances

Cheltenham0 from 0.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Salford City2 from 0.81 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cheltenham 4-1-4-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 5R. CundyD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 26J. ShipleyM
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 31M. DialloG
  • 1J. DayG
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 9K. OtchereF
Coach: S. Cotterill
Salford City 3-5-2
  • 1W. NorrisG
  • 4W. AimsonD
  • 17D. ScarrD
  • 24T. AllenD
  • 43L. MolyneuxM
  • 16E. BondsM
  • 8J. GrantM
  • 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
  • 14A. OdohM
  • 19R. GraydonF
  • 9M. LangstaffF
Substitutes
  • 2N. AsiimweD
  • 26L. BurgeG
  • 18M. ButcherM
  • 21K. CesayM
  • 29L. GarbuttD
  • 22A. OluwoD
  • 23D. UdohF
Coach: P. Cklamovski

Form going into Cheltenham vs Salford City

Cheltenham

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
  • W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026

Salford City

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Oldham26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Cheltenham146352325-221
1Salford City1410132515+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Salford City

  • 21 February 2026Cheltenham 3–2 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 29 August 2025Salford City 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 25 January 2025Cheltenham 2–1 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 30 November 2024Salford City 2–0 CheltenhamFA Cup
  • 14 September 2024Salford City 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 10 January 2023Cheltenham 3–1 Salford CityEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Salford City

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91
  • J. Evans44

Salford City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Langstaff51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Salford City won 2–0 at Cheltenham. The model had made a win for Salford City its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jorge Grant 84' for Salford City, Jorge Grant 90+3' for Salford City. Sent off: Ben Stevenson (Cheltenham) 78'. On expected goals it finished 0.33–0.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cheltenham a 14.3% chance to finish in the top four: 17.2% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.3%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For Salford City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.5% going in: 38.3% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 29.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.3%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cheltenham v Salford City has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Salford City's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cheltenham win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Salford City win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.