Swansea
vs
Norwich
Championship prediction
Our model says: Swansea 2–1 Norwich
The model makes it 44% Swansea, 28% draw, 28% Norwich — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Swansea 1.74, Norwich 1.18.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Swansea vs Norwich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Swansea vs Norwich
Swansea
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
Norwich
- L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
- W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stoke City1 September 2026
What these results say
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Swansea vs Norwich
- 25 April 2026Norwich 1–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 25 October 2025Swansea 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 25 January 2025Norwich 5–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 14 September 2024Swansea 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 27 April 2024Norwich 2–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 4 October 2023Swansea 2–1 NorwichChampionship
Leading scorers: Swansea and Norwich
Swansea
- A. Idah3 goals1 assists
Norwich
- M. Touré5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swansea carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.59 for Norwich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Swansea and 1.18 for Norwich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swansea rate 0.77 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Norwich rate 0.87 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 24.8% chance of the title and Norwich 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Swansea against 1.18 for Norwich. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.5 for Norwich.