10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Swansea vs Norwich Championship prediction & result

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Referee: Andrew Kitchen, England
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Swansea 2-1 Norwich.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Swansea, 26% draw, 27% Norwich — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Swansea at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swansea96%Draw4%Norwich0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jay Fulton
22'
28'
⚽Jacob Wrightassist: Oscar Schwartau
⚽Moussa Kounfolo Yeoassist: Josh Tymon
49'
58'
Pelle Mattsson
⚽Adam Idahassist: melker widell
59'
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
63'
63'
🔁Paris Maghomaout: Samuel Field
🔁Jay Fultonout: Marko Stamenić
70'
🔁melker widellout: Elijah Just
70'
70'
🔁Andre Brooksout: Anthony Musaba
70'
🔁Mathias Kvistgaardenout: J. Makama
🔁Stephen Welshout: Jenson Seelt
84'
🔁Joseph Amankwaah Opokuout: Eom Ji-Sung
84'
85'
🔁Jacob Wrightout: Anis Ben Slimane

Match stats — Swansea vs Norwich

57%Possession43%
12Shots12
8On target5
3Corners2
2.25xG0.67

Goals against chances

Swansea2 from 2.25 xGabout what the chances were worth
Norwich1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 7M. WidellM
  • 49M. YeoF
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
Substitutes
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 16Tom IorpendaM
  • 8E. JustF
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 31R. StewartF
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
Coach: Vítor Matos
Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. KovačevićG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 33J. CórdobaD
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 7P. MattssonM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 29O. SchwartauM
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
Substitutes
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 49A. MusabaF
  • 20A. Ben SlimaneM
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 17A. CrnacF
  • 14B. ChriseneD
Coach: P. Clement

Form going into Swansea vs Norwich

Swansea

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
  • W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
  • D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
  • W2-0Watford1 September 2026

Norwich

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
  • W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Stoke City1 September 2026

What these results say

  • Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Swansea158252218+426
12Norwich157083224+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swansea vs Norwich

  • 25 April 2026Norwich 1–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Swansea 2–1 NorwichChampionship
  • 25 January 2025Norwich 5–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 14 September 2024Swansea 1–0 NorwichChampionship
  • 27 April 2024Norwich 2–2 SwanseaChampionship

The full Swansea vs Norwich record →

Leading scorers: Swansea and Norwich

Swansea

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Swansea beat Norwich 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Swansea at 47%. The goals: Jacob Wright 28' for Norwich, Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 49' for Swansea, Adam Idah 59' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 2.25–0.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swansea a 41.1% chance to finish in the top four: 44.9% after a win, 39.7% after a draw, 34.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Norwich the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.6% going in: 11.3% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Swansea v Norwich has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Swansea's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Swansea win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Norwich win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.