11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Waterford vs Dundalk Premier Division prediction & result

Regional Sports Centre, Waterford
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Waterford 1-1 Dundalk.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Waterford, 25% draw, 25% Dundalk — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Waterford at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽John Mahon (OG)
31'
Keith Buckley
⚽H. Cannassist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
37'
56'
shane tracey
60'
🔁shane traceyout: Bobby Burns
61'
🔁John Ross Wilsonout: Harvey Warren
61'
🔁leonardo gaxhaout: Declan McDaid
61'
🔁Keith Buckleyout: Aodh Dervin
65'
Harvey Warren
72'
🔁Egor Vasseninout: Harry Groome
Evan McLaughlin
78'
90'
ronan teahan

Match stats — Waterford vs Dundalk

40%Possession60%
17Shots10
8On target2
9Corners1

Line-ups

Waterford 4-4-2
  • 1S. McMullanG
  • 16H. CannD
  • 5J. MahonD
  • 13K. LongD
  • 3Benny CoutoD
  • 20J. VoilåsM
  • 8E. McLaughlinM
  • 10C. NoonanM
  • 7N. MaweneM
  • 18T. LonerganF
  • 9P. AmondF
Substitutes
  • 32G. AmeduD
  • 6J. AshtonD
  • 11T. CoyleF
  • 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  • 17J. FariaM
  • 15L. HeeneyM
  • 27D. McMenamyM
  • 12B. McKenzieD
  • 56A. BrennanD
Coach: G. Coughlan
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 31J. WilsonD
  • 4M. AnimasahunD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 16E. VasseninD
  • 18K. BuckleyM
  • 17S. TraceyM
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaM
  • 11R. TeahanM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 9C. DillonF
Substitutes
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 20S. SafaeiG
  • 19Sean SpaightD
  • 5H. WarrenD
  • 23A. M. KeoghM
  • 8H. GroomeM
Coach: C. Kilduff

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Waterford35913135159-840
7Dundalk351012135258-642

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Waterford and Dundalk

Waterford

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lonergan156
  • P. Amond131

Dundalk

GoalsAssists

  • D. Horgan1110
  • G. Arubi73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Waterford and Dundalk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Waterford at 50% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: John Mahon (own goal) 21' for Dundalk, H. Cann 37' for Waterford.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.