Shelbourne vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 32% Derry City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shelbourne vs Derry City
Line-ups
- 19E. BeachG
- 25M. MbengD
- 16O. CaseyD
- 4K. LedwidgeD
- 18James Barry NorrisD
- 6J. LunneyM
- 23K. McInroyM
- 27E. CaffreyM
- 14A. CooteM
- 17D. KellyM
- 11M. OdubekoF
- 55James RocheD
- 2S. GannonD
- 20R. FreitasF
- 9S. BoydF
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 36W. JarvisM
- 13M. JohnsonG
- 22S. MooreD
- 44Daniel RingF
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 23C. DummiganD
- 4J. StottD
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 14E. ChapmanM
- 19B. FlemingM
- 12D. BurnsF
- 29T. SmithF
- 7M. DuffyF
- 22C. BarrD
- 27L. BoyceF
- 15J. ClarkeM
- 25Christy GroganD
- 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
- 1B. MaherG
- 21Kévin SantosM
- 28J. OlayinkaM
- 11G. WhyteM
Form going into Shelbourne vs Derry City
Shelbourne
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D2-2Ajax13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Ajax6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kalju Nomme30 July 2026
- W5-2Kalju Nomme23 July 2026
Derry City
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Derry City
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- D. Kelly84
- J. Martin82
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Derry City won 1–0 at Shelbourne. The model had leaned towards a win for Shelbourne at 38% and given a win for Derry City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Michael Duffy 90+3' for Derry City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.