Shelbourne vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 32% Derry City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shelbourne vs Derry City
Shelbourne
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United28 August 2026
- L1-2St Patrick's Athletic9 August 2026
Derry City
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L3-5away to Bohemians21 August 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shelbourne | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 36 |
| 5 | Derry City | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Derry City
Shelbourne
- H. Wood7 goals5 assists
- J. Martin6 goals2 assists
- D. Kelly6 goals
Derry City
- M. Duffy10 goals5 assists
- J. Clarke6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.