11 September 2026, 22:15 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Defensa Y Justicia, 29% draw, 32% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Defensa Y Justicia99%Draw1%Gimnasia Mendoza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leandro Fernándezassist: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
11'
•Leandro Fernández
20'
34'
🔁Facundo Lencioniout: Brian Andrada
Héctor David Martínez
45'
50'
Diego Mondino
⚽David Barbonaassist: César Pérez
57'
63'
🔁Fermin Antoniniout: Nahuel Barboza
63'
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Agustín Módica
63'
🔁Ulises Sánchezout: Matías Vargas
🔁David Barbonaout: Maximiliano Porcel
66'
70'
Luciano Paredes
75'
Luciano César Cingolani
76'
🔁Luciano César Cingolaniout: Santiago Rodríguez
🔁Jeremías Luccoout: Agustin Hausch
79'
🔁Leandro Fernándezout: Tiziano Perrotta
79'
🔁Juan Manuel Gutiérrezout: E Burdin
83'

Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

48%Possession52%
10Shots16
6On target1
5Corners6

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 28V. LozaD
  • 29D. FernándezD
  • 21D. MartínezD
  • 3F. RománD
  • 15S. SosaM
  • 8C. PérezM
  • 26J. LuccoM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 24J. GutiérrezM
  • 9L. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 36L. AmadéG
  • 6E. BurdinD
  • 30D. DomínguezD
  • 17A. HauschF
  • 5J. LópezM
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 11Tiziano PerrotaF
  • 22M. PorcelM
Coach: J. Vaccari
Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MuñozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 15U. SánchezM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 17I. SabatiniF
Substitutes
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 9A. MódicaF
  • 20T. OrtizM
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
Coach: D. Franco

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Defensa Y Justicia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
  • W1-0Platense31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026
  • W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
  • W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Defensa Y Justicia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia Mendoza had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Defensa Y Justicia148332013+727
7Gimnasia Mendoza146261615+120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

  • 4 May 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 2–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and Gimnasia Mendoza

Defensa Y Justicia

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Defensa Y Justicia beat Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0. The model had made a win for Defensa Y Justicia its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Leandro Fernández 11' for Defensa Y Justicia, David Barbona 57' for Defensa Y Justicia.

How the call on Defensa Y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Defensa Y Justicia's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Defensa Y Justicia win39%▼ −6
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Gimnasia Mendoza win32%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.