11 September 2026, 22:15 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Full time2 0

Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Defensa Y Justicia, 29% draw, 32% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Defensa Y Justicia99%Draw1%Gimnasia Mendoza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Leandro Fernándezassist: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
11'
Leandro Fernández
20'
34'
🔁Facundo Lencioniout: Brian Andrada
Héctor David Martínez
45'
50'
Diego Mondino
David Barbonaassist: César Pérez
57'
63'
🔁Fermin Antoniniout: Nahuel Barboza
63'
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Agustín Módica
63'
🔁Ulises Sánchezout: Matías Vargas
🔁David Barbonaout: Maximiliano Porcel
66'
70'
Luciano Paredes
75'
Luciano César Cingolani
76'
🔁Luciano César Cingolaniout: Santiago Rodríguez
🔁Jeremías Luccoout: Agustin Hausch
79'
🔁Leandro Fernándezout: Tiziano Perrotta
79'
🔁Juan Manuel Gutiérrezout: E Burdin
83'

Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

48%Possession52%
10Shots16
6On target1
5Corners6

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 28V. LozaD
  • 29D. FernándezD
  • 21D. MartínezD
  • 3F. RománD
  • 15S. SosaM
  • 8C. PérezM
  • 26J. LuccoM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 24J. GutiérrezM
  • 9L. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 36L. AmadéG
  • 6E. BurdinD
  • 30D. DomínguezD
  • 17A. HauschF
  • 5J. LópezM
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 11Tiziano PerrotaF
  • 22M. PorcelM
Coach: J. Vaccari
Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MuñozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 15U. SánchezM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 17I. SabatiniF
Substitutes
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 9A. MódicaF
  • 20T. OrtizM
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
Coach: D. Franco

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Defensa Y Justicia

  • L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
  • W1-0Platense31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

  • D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
  • W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Defensa Y Justicia9522119+217
4Gimnasia Mendoza9513149+516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza

  • 4 May 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 2–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and Gimnasia Mendoza

Defensa Y Justicia

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Gimnasia Mendoza

  • A. Módica12 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.