11 September 2026, 20:00 UTC

Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Newell's Old Boys 1-1 Velez Sarsfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Newell's Old Boys, 30% draw, 35% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newell's Old Boys at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newell's Old Boys0%Draw4%Velez Sarsfield96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Ronaldo Martinezassist: Elías Gómez
59'
🔁Emanuel Mammanaout: Lisandro Magallán
60'
🔁Juan Cruz Policellaout: Álex Zahir Verón
🔁Rodrigo Herreraout: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
60'
62'
Simón Escobar
⚽Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra (pen)
63'
🔁Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyraout: Walter Nunez
67'
80'
🔁Rodrigo Aliendroout: Luca Feler
81'
🔁Ronaldo Martinezout: Dilan Godoy
🔁Luca Regiardoout: Juan Ignacio Ramírez
85'
🔁Facundo Samuel Guchout: Alan Soñora
85'
88'
🔁Manuel Lanziniout: Claudio Baeza
⚽Alan Soñora
90+3'

Match stats — Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield

53%Possession47%
15Shots7
6On target1
8Corners2

Line-ups

Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ReinattiG
  • 6M. OrtegaD
  • 17L. GianettiD
  • 16L. CarrizoD
  • 28J. RussoD
  • 26R. HerreraM
  • 5L. RegiardoM
  • 7W. MazzanttiM
  • 20Facundo GauchM
  • 32S. SolariM
  • 9M. CóccaroF
Substitutes
  • 25B. CabreraD
  • 27L. GómezM
  • 19J. MattarM
  • 3M. LucianoD
  • 33W. NúñezF
  • 99I. RamírezF
  • 39T. RiosF
  • 22O. SalomónD
  • 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
Coach: F. Kudelka
Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 32Thiago SilveorD
  • 2E. MammanaD
  • 3Elías GómezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 37J. PolicellaM
  • 22M. LanziniM
  • 18S. EscobarM
  • 77R. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 15D. GodoyF
  • 16L. MagallánD
  • 47A. PereyraD
  • 23F. SanguinettiG
  • 17A. VerónF
  • 33Thiago VillalbaM
  • 35M. AriasF
Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto

Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield

Newell's Old Boys

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
  • W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
  • W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia9 August 2026

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026
  • D1-1Defensa Y Justicia17 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Boca Juniors8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Newell's Old Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Newell's Old Boys145631310+321
2Velez Sarsfield147612313+1027

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield

  • 4 May 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 21 May 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 February 2023Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 September 2022Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 October 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 13 February 2021Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield record →

Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield

Newell's Old Boys

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez132

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Newell's Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield drew 1–1. The goals: Ronaldo Martinez 27' for Velez Sarsfield, Alan Soñora 90+3' for Newell's Old Boys.

How the call on Newell's Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Newell's Old Boys's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Newell's Old Boys win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Velez Sarsfield win35%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.