Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Newell's Old Boys 1-1 Velez Sarsfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Newell's Old Boys, 30% draw, 35% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
Line-ups
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 17L. GianettiD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 28J. RussoD
- 26R. HerreraM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GauchM
- 32S. SolariM
- 9M. CóccaroF
- 25B. CabreraD
- 27L. GómezM
- 19J. MattarM
- 3M. LucianoD
- 33W. NúñezF
- 99I. RamírezF
- 39T. RiosF
- 22O. SalomónD
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveorD
- 2E. MammanaD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 37J. PolicellaM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 18S. EscobarM
- 77R. MartínezF
- 5C. BaezaM
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 15D. GodoyF
- 16L. MagallánD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 23F. SanguinettiG
- 17A. VerónF
- 33Thiago VillalbaM
- 35M. AriasF
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
Newell's Old Boys
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
Velez Sarsfield
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
- D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026
- D1-1Defensa Y Justicia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
- 4 May 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2023Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 September 2022Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 October 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2021Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Velez Sarsfield
- M. Lanzini6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.