Helmond Sport
vs
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Helmond Sport 0–1 NAC Breda
The model makes it 30% Helmond Sport, 30% draw, 40% NAC Breda — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.02, NAC Breda 1.37.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Helmond Sport are 14th on 9 points from 9 games; NAC Breda are 9th on 13 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Helmond Sport are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Heracles.
- NAC Breda have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 January 2024, ended Helmond Sport 1–0 NAC Breda.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NAC Breda at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
Helmond Sport
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
- W4-2VVV Venlo4 September 2026
NAC Breda
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
- L2-3Jong Utrecht11 September 2026
- L2-4away to Waalwijk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Roda28 August 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Helmond Sport had three goals or more.
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
- 26 January 2024Helmond Sport 1–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 27 October 2023NAC Breda 1–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 13 January 2023Helmond Sport 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 5 August 2022NAC Breda 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 18 March 2022Helmond Sport 4–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 27 November 2021NAC Breda 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and NAC Breda
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
NAC Breda
- P. Gladon4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Helmond Sport carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.51 for NAC Breda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.37 for NAC Breda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Helmond Sport rate 0.48 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NAC Breda rate 0.66 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Helmond Sport a 0% chance of the title and NAC Breda 12.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.37 for NAC Breda. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.3 for NAC Breda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Helmond Sport at home · NAC Breda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Helmond Sport 9, NAC Breda 8.
Helmond Sport score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); NAC Breda have let in 2 there.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Helmond Sport
- at Jong AZ23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs FC Eindhoven30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs FC Volendam6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- at Almere City FC14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
NAC Breda
- vs Heracles23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Jong PSV U212 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at Dordrecht6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.