Emmen
vs
Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Emmen 1–2 Almere City FC
The model makes it 32% Emmen, 28% draw, 40% Almere City FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Emmen 1.36, Almere City FC 1.66.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Emmen are 6th on 15 points from 8 games; Almere City FC are 2nd on 16 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Emmen have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC OSS.
- Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Dordrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Emmen 4–0 Almere City FC.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Emmen vs Almere City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almere City FC at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Emmen vs Almere City FC
Emmen
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
- W5-3FC Volendam4 September 2026
- L0-4away to VVV Venlo30 August 2026
Almere City FC
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
- L0-1Jong Ajax4 September 2026
- W4-1away to De Graafschap29 August 2026
What these results say
- Emmen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Emmen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Emmen had three goals or more.
- Almere City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Emmen vs Almere City FC
- 1 August 2026Emmen 4–0 Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2025Almere City FC 4–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 17 August 2025Emmen 1–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 11 June 2023Emmen 1–2 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 6 June 2023Almere City FC 2–0 EmmenEredivisie
- 11 February 2022Almere City FC 0–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Emmen and Almere City FC
Emmen
- F. Quispel6 goals
- J. Cooper5 goals2 assists
Almere City FC
- F. Druijf6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Emmen carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.49 for Almere City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Emmen and 1.66 for Almere City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Emmen rate 0.59 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almere City FC rate 0.69 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Emmen a 1% chance of the title and Almere City FC 19.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Emmen against 1.66 for Almere City FC. Emmen's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for Almere City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Emmen at home · Almere City FC away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Emmen 8, Almere City FC 8.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Emmen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Emmen
- at Vitesse23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs Den Bosch30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Almere City FC
- vs Roda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Waalwijk30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.