Boulogne
vs
Annecy
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Boulogne 0–1 Annecy
The model makes it 33% Boulogne, 32% draw, 35% Annecy — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Boulogne 1.01, Annecy 1.07.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
A tight game: Boulogne and Annecy are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Boulogne's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Annecy's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Boulogne are 12th on 9 points from 9 games; Annecy are 8th on 13 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Boulogne have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Grenoble.
- Annecy have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Nancy.
- Last 6 meetings: Annecy 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Boulogne 1–2 Annecy.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Boulogne vs Annecy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Annecy at 35% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Boulogne vs Annecy
Boulogne
Ligue 2
- W2-0away to Grenoble16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sochaux9 October 2026
- L1-2Nantes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot11 September 2026
- D1-1Dijon4 September 2026
Annecy
Ligue 2
- L1-2Nancy16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque9 October 2026
- L1-2Dijon18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guingamp12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
What these results say
- Boulogne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boulogne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boulogne had two goals or fewer.
- Annecy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Annecy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Annecy had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Boulogne | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Annecy | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Annecy
- 2 May 2026Boulogne 1–2 AnnecyLigue 2
- 31 October 2025Annecy 1–1 BoulogneLigue 2
- 4 February 2022Boulogne 1–1 AnnecyLigue 3
- 27 August 2021Annecy 2–0 BoulogneLigue 3
- 10 May 2021Annecy 4–0 BoulogneLigue 3
- 8 January 2021Boulogne 0–1 AnnecyLigue 3
Leading scorers: Boulogne and Annecy
Boulogne
GoalsAssists
- A. Hbouch30
Annecy
GoalsAssists
- M. Sahi30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Boulogne carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.49 for Annecy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Boulogne and 1.07 for Annecy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boulogne rate 0.49 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Annecy rate 0.67 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boulogne a 0.1% chance of the title and Annecy 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Annecy the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Boulogne against 1.07 for Annecy. Boulogne's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.39 for Annecy.
How the model reaches 35% for Annecy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Annecy to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Boulogne's ratings add 23 points and Annecy's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Boulogne's ratings54%+23
- Annecy's ratings35%−19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Boulogne at home · Annecy away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BoulogneAnnecy
Boulogne are 12th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Annecy are 8th after 9 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Boulogne 9, Annecy 9.
Boulogne score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Annecy have let in 0 there.
Annecy score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Boulogne have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Boulogne
- at Metz20 Nov · Ligue 2win 26%
- vs PAU4 Dec · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Rodez11 Dec · Ligue 2win 39%
Annecy
- vs Clermont Foot20 Nov · Ligue 2win 46%
- vs Laval4 Dec · Ligue 2win 53%
- at Nantes11 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.