União de Leiria
vs
AVS
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: União de Leiria 2–1 AVS
The model makes it 37% União de Leiria, 26% draw, 37% AVS — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: União de Leiria 1.58, AVS 1.57.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: União de Leiria and AVS are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- União de Leiria are 9th on 10 points from 7 games; AVS are 12th on 9 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- União de Leiria have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Academica.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Penafiel.
- Last 2 meetings: AVS 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2024, ended AVS 2–1 União de Leiria.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: União de Leiria vs AVS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts União de Leiria at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into União de Leiria vs AVS
União de Leiria
- L0-2Academica11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
- W1-0Portimonense6 September 2026
- W2-0Tondela28 August 2026
- W4-2away to Leixoes22 August 2026
AVS
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
What these results say
- União de Leiria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
União de Leiria
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
AVS
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs AVS
- 11 February 2024AVS 2–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
- 2 September 2023União de Leiria 1–2 AVSSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
União de Leiria carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.58 for AVS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for União de Leiria and 1.57 for AVS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
União de Leiria rate 0.76 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AVS rate 0.74 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives União de Leiria a 2% chance of the title and AVS 9.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives União de Leiria the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for União de Leiria against 1.57 for AVS. União de Leiria's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.28 for AVS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
União de Leiria at home · AVS away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: União de Leiria 7, AVS 7.
União de Leiria score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); AVS have let in 0 there.
AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); União de Leiria have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
União de Leiria
- at Torreense9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Sporting CP B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Farense28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Chaves6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 57%
AVS
- vs Vizela6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Amarante6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.