Chaves
vs
Vizela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Chaves 2–1 Vizela
The model makes it 39% Chaves, 27% draw, 34% Vizela — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chaves 1.49, Vizela 1.36.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chaves are 17th on 5 points from 7 games; Vizela are 8th on 11 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Vizela have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting CP B.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Vizela 1–0 Chaves.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chaves vs Vizela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chaves at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chaves vs Vizela
Chaves
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
Vizela
- L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
- W1-0Felgueiras 19326 September 2026
- W3-0away to Torreense29 August 2026
- D0-0Amarante22 August 2026
What these results say
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
Vizela
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chaves vs Vizela
- 18 July 2026Vizela 1–0 ChavesFriendlies Clubs
- 28 February 2026Vizela 3–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 4 October 2025Chaves 1–0 VizelaSegunda Liga
- 5 April 2025Chaves 1–2 VizelaSegunda Liga
- 8 November 2024Vizela 0–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 15 April 2024Vizela 0–1 ChavesPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chaves carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.38 for Vizela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Chaves and 1.36 for Vizela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chaves rate 0.62 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vizela rate 0.57 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vizela, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chaves a 0% chance of the title and Vizela 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chaves the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Chaves against 1.36 for Vizela. Chaves's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.48 for Vizela.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chaves at home · Vizela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Chaves 7, Vizela 7.
Vizela score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Chaves have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chaves
- at Benfica B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 16%
- vs Penafiel7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at Leixoes15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Tondela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- at União de Leiria6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
Vizela
- vs Academica1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at AVS6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs Feirense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 50%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Farense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.