Leixoes
vs
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Leixoes 2–1 Sporting CP B
The model makes it 42% Leixoes, 27% draw, 31% Sporting CP B — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leixoes 1.60, Sporting CP B 1.30.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leixoes are 10th on 10 points from 7 games; Sporting CP B are 2nd on 15 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Leixoes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto B.
- Sporting CP B have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Vizela.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting CP B 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Sporting CP B 0–1 Leixoes.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leixoes vs Sporting CP B
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leixoes at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leixoes vs Sporting CP B
Leixoes
- L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
- W3-1Amarante6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense29 August 2026
- L2-4União de Leiria22 August 2026
Sporting CP B
- W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
- L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026
- W3-1away to Feirense5 September 2026
- W2-1Farense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Penafiel23 August 2026
What these results say
- Leixoes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leixoes
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Sporting CP B
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leixoes vs Sporting CP B
- 28 February 2026Sporting CP B 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 5 October 2025Leixoes 0–4 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 18 March 2018Leixoes 1–1 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 29 October 2017Sporting CP B 1–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 19 March 2017Leixoes 1–2 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 23 October 2016Sporting CP B 2–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leixoes carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.47 for Sporting CP B. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Leixoes and 1.30 for Sporting CP B. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leixoes rate 0.72 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP B rate 0.64 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting CP B, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leixoes a 2.5% chance of the title and Sporting CP B 8.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leixoes the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Leixoes against 1.30 for Sporting CP B. Leixoes's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.37 for Sporting CP B.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leixoes at home · Sporting CP B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Leixoes 7, Sporting CP B 7.
Leixoes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sporting CP B have let in 2 there.
Sporting CP B score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Leixoes have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leixoes
- at Felgueiras 19327 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Chaves15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 56%
- at AVS29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Feirense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 55%
Sporting CP B
- vs Tondela8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at União de Leiria15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Amarante30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Torreense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.