Farense
vs
Penafiel
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Farense 2–1 Penafiel
The model makes it 45% Farense, 27% draw, 28% Penafiel — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Farense 1.67, Penafiel 1.21.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Farense are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Penafiel are 4th on 13 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Farense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Feirense.
- Penafiel have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AVS.
- Last 6 meetings: Farense 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Penafiel 1–1 Farense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Farense vs Penafiel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farense at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Farense vs Penafiel
Farense
- W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
- D1-1Felgueiras 193224 August 2026
Penafiel
- L1-2AVS9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting CP B23 August 2026
What these results say
- Farense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Penafiel had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Farense
Chance to finish in the top four · 42% today
Penafiel
Chance to finish in the top four · 42% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Farense vs Penafiel
- 7 March 2026Penafiel 1–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 26 October 2025Farense 0–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 22 April 2023Farense 2–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 5 November 2022Penafiel 0–2 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 19 March 2022Penafiel 1–3 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 1 November 2021Farense 2–2 PenafielSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Farense carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.52 for Penafiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Farense and 1.21 for Penafiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farense rate 0.67 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Penafiel rate 0.79 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farense a 11.9% chance of the title and Penafiel 12.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Farense the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Farense against 1.21 for Penafiel. Farense's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.53 for Penafiel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Farense at home · Penafiel away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Farense 7, Penafiel 7.
Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Penafiel have let in 2 there.
Penafiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Farense have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Farense
- at Lusitânia Lourosa1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Benfica B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Tondela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
- vs União de Leiria28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Vizela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Penafiel
- vs Feirense2 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 61%
- at Chaves7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- vs Benfica B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Tondela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.