Portimonense
vs
Torreense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Portimonense 0–1 Torreense
The model makes it 31% Portimonense, 29% draw, 40% Torreense — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Portimonense 1.17, Torreense 1.38.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Torreense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Portimonense are 11th on 10 points from 7 games; Torreense are 15th on 6 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Portimonense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Amarante.
- Torreense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Tondela.
- Last 4 meetings: Torreense 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 March 2026, ended Torreense 1–0 Portimonense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portimonense vs Torreense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torreense at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portimonense vs Torreense
Portimonense
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
- L0-1away to União de Leiria6 September 2026
- L0-2Leixoes29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Benfica B21 August 2026
Torreense
- L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
- W2-0away to Benfica B5 September 2026
- L0-3Vizela29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Portimonense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Portimonense had two goals or fewer.
- Torreense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Portimonense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Torreense
Chance to finish in the top four · 32% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Portimonense vs Torreense
- 16 March 2026Torreense 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 30 October 2025Portimonense 0–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 16 February 2025Portimonense 1–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 13 September 2024Torreense 3–2 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
The two sides
Portimonense carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.59 for Torreense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Portimonense and 1.38 for Torreense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portimonense rate 0.58 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torreense rate 0.73 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portimonense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portimonense a 0.7% chance of the title and Torreense 6.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torreense the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portimonense against 1.38 for Torreense. Portimonense's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.24 for Torreense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portimonense at home · Torreense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Portimonense 7, Torreense 7.
Portimonense score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Torreense have let in 1 there.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Portimonense have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Portimonense
- at FC Porto B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Academica15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
- at Feirense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Felgueiras 19326 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 42%
Torreense
- vs Ararat-Armenia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 66%
- vs União de Leiria9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at FC Porto B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.