Vitoria
vs
Chapecoense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vitoria 1–0 Chapecoense
The model makes it 43% Vitoria, 29% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.62, Chapecoense 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitoria at 43% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Vitoria
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
Chapecoense
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Chapecoense
- 5 April 2026Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Chapecoense 3–1 VitoriaSerie B
- 24 July 2023Vitoria 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 January 2021Vitoria 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 October 2020Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie B
- 14 October 2018Chapecoense 0–1 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Chapecoense
Vitoria
- Rene9 goals1 assists
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vitoria carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.51 for Chapecoense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Vitoria and 1.06 for Chapecoense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitoria rate 0.67 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chapecoense rate 0.77 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitoria the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.06 for Chapecoense. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.53 for Chapecoense.