Vitoria vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Vitoria, 29% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Vitoria at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95CaíqueM
- 6E. MartínezM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 2E. BrítezD
- 26EdenilsonM
- 23FabrícioF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 98AndersonG
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 3DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 27CamiloM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31GarcezM
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 39RodrigoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 12FernandoD
- 29F. RossiF
- 4João PauloD
- 14Gabriel WernerG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
Form going into Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Chapecoense
- 5 April 2026Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Chapecoense 3–1 VitoriaSerie B
- 24 July 2023Vitoria 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 January 2021Vitoria 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 October 2020Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Chapecoense
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vitoria beat Chapecoense 4–0. The model had made a win for Vitoria its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Erick 18' for Vitoria, Matheuzinho 53' for Vitoria, Erick 61' for Vitoria, Matheuzinho 74' for Vitoria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.