America Mineiro
vs
Fortaleza EC
Serie B prediction
Our model says: America Mineiro 0–2 Fortaleza EC
The model makes it 23% America Mineiro, 27% draw, 50% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: America Mineiro 0.92, Fortaleza EC 1.93.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- America Mineiro are 19th on 17 points from 30 games; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 53 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- America Mineiro are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Juventude.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Nautico Recife.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortaleza EC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 June 2026, ended Fortaleza EC 0–3 America Mineiro.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vila Nova18 September 2026
- L0-2São Bernardo14 September 2026
- W2-1Nautico Recife9 September 2026
- L1-3away to CRB5 September 2026
Fortaleza EC
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
- D1-1Ceara13 September 2026
- W1-0Avai9 September 2026
What these results say
- America Mineiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- America Mineiro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
- 16 June 2026Fortaleza EC 0–3 America MineiroSerie B
- 8 October 2023Fortaleza EC 3–2 America MineiroSerie A
- 31 August 2023Fortaleza EC 2–1 America MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 24 August 2023America Mineiro 1–3 Fortaleza ECCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 20 May 2023America Mineiro 2–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
- 15 October 2022America Mineiro 1–2 Fortaleza ECSerie A
Leading scorers: America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Fortaleza EC
- Maílton7 goals1 assist
- Vitinho6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
America Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.59 for Fortaleza EC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for America Mineiro and 1.93 for Fortaleza EC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America Mineiro rate 0.43 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza EC rate 0.78 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives America Mineiro a 0% chance of the title and Fortaleza EC 15.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for America Mineiro against 1.93 for Fortaleza EC. America Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.31 for Fortaleza EC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America Mineiro at home · Fortaleza EC away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: America Mineiro 30, Fortaleza EC 31.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); America Mineiro have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
America Mineiro
- at Criciuma12 Oct · Serie Bwin 19%
- vs Operario-PR17 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Cuiaba24 Oct · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Londrina31 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
Fortaleza EC
- vs CRB12 Oct · Serie Bwin 52%
- at Sport Recife16 Oct · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Ponte Preta24 Oct · Serie Bwin 63%
- vs Atletico Goianiense31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Novorizontino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.