Remo
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Remo 1–0 Gremio
The model makes it 40% Remo, 29% draw, 31% Gremio — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Remo 1.45, Gremio 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Remo vs Gremio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Remo at 40% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Remo vs Gremio
Remo
- L1-2Santos19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia14 September 2026
- L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
- L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
Gremio
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Remo vs Gremio
- 5 April 2026Gremio 0–0 RemoSerie A
Leading scorers: Remo and Gremio
Remo
- Jája Silva7 goals1 assists
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Remo carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.63 for Gremio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Remo and 1.14 for Gremio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Remo rate 0.78 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gremio rate 0.75 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gremio, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Remo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Remo against 1.14 for Gremio. Remo's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.18 for Gremio.