Vitoria vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Vitoria, 27% draw, 41% Botafogo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BritezD
- 25CacaD
- 36Luan CandidoD
- 13RamonD
- 6Emmanuel MartinezM
- 88Ze VitorM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 71YuriG
- 83JamersonD
- 70FabianoD
- 98MatheusinhoD
- 18KauanD
- 15WalaceD
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 26EdenilsonM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 17WarlesonG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 33L. MonzonD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10A. MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 4M. PonteD
- 26AnthonyD
- 25AllanM
- 23S. RodriguezM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 7Junior SantosF
Form going into Vitoria vs Botafogo
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Vitoria failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Botafogo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Botafogo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Botafogo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Botafogo
- 23 July 2026Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Vitoria 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 17 July 2025Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 23 November 2024Botafogo 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 12 July 2024Vitoria 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 May 2024Vitoria 1–2 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Botafogo
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vitoria beat Botafogo 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Botafogo at 41% and given a win for Vitoria 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Matheuzinho (penalty) 27' for Vitoria. On expected goals it finished 2.27–1.13.