Vasco da Gama vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 0-3 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Vasco da Gama, 17% draw, 20% Santos — fair odds of 1.59, 5.88 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vasco da Gama at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Santos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 8JairM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GomezM
- 3Tche TcheM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 5S. SosaM
- 82Riquelme AvellarD
- 10J. RojasF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 28AdsonF
- 77Gabriel BrazaoG
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 15Willian AraoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 28C. OlivaM
- 5Joao SchmidtM
- 17G. CaballeroM
- 10NeymarM
- 22A. BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 1DiogenesG
- 34Joao PauloG
- 42Joao AlencarD
- 26Joao AnaniasD
- 81S. PierriM
- 30MiguelitoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 48Gustavo HenriqueM
- 7J. RobinhoF
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Santos
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
Santos
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Santos
- 26 February 2026Santos 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 17 August 2025Santos 0–6 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 30 March 2025Vasco da Gama 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 October 2023Santos 4–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 14 May 2023Vasco da Gama 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 20 December 2020Vasco da Gama 1–0 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Santos
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos won 3–0 at Vasco da Gama. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasco da Gama at 63% and given a win for Santos 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Gabriel Barbosa 68' for Santos, Willian Arao 77' for Santos, Luan Peres 81' for Santos. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.91.