ADO Den Haag
vs
Groningen
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 31% ADO Den Haag, 23% draw, 46% Groningen — fair odds of 3.23, 4.35 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.49, Groningen 1.85.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
ADO Den Haag
- L0-2away to AZ Alkmaar8 August 2026
Groningen
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
- 29 March 2024ADO Den Haag 0–2 GroningenEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Groningen 0–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 26 January 2021Groningen 3–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 20 September 2020ADO Den Haag 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 14 December 2019ADO Den Haag 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
The two sides
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.68 for Groningen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): ADO Den Haag L; Groningen W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.85 for Groningen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.73 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Groningen rate 0.76 and 1.08.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.85 for Groningen. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.08 for Groningen.