ADO Den Haag vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% ADO Den Haag, 24% draw, 45% Groningen — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Groningen at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Kilian NikièmaG
- 15Milan HokkeD
- 3Pascal MulderD
- 4Matteo WaemD
- 18Sekou SyllaD
- 7Daryl van MieghemM
- 8Jan ŽambůrekM
- 25Juho KiloM
- 10Illaijh de RuijterM
- 9Jesse BalF
- 46Yannick EduardoF
- 2Othniël RaterinkD
- 16Finn de BruinM
- 19Luka ReischlF
- 11Evan RottierF
- 22Lasse WilhelmD
- 23Niclas ThiedeG
- 12Sem EekhoutG
- 35Sanyika BergtopD
- 14Mylian JimenezM
- 1Etienne VaessenG
- 14Jorg SchreudersD
- 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
- 15Elvis Van der LaanD
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 8Tika de JongeM
- 18Tygo LandM
- 17David van der WerffM
- 26Thom van BergenM
- 24Pelle ClementM
- 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
- 4Márk CsingerD
- 20Nils EggensF
- 12Nikolas BrandisD
- 7Travis HernesM
- 11Jacob OndrejkaF
- 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
- 31Rijk JanseG
- 42Jesper MosselaarD
- 16Alvin NordinM
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
ADO Den Haag
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to AZ Alkmaar8 August 2026
Groningen
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
- 29 March 2024ADO Den Haag 0–2 GroningenEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Groningen 0–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 26 January 2021Groningen 3–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 20 September 2020ADO Den Haag 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Groningen
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Groningen won 4–1 at ADO Den Haag. The model had made a win for Groningen its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. van Bergen 15' for Groningen, B. Willumsson 30' for Groningen, D. van der Werff 45+2' for Groningen, Y. Eduardo 55' for ADO Den Haag, N. Eggens 81' for Groningen. On expected goals it finished 1.01–3.20.