Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sao Paulo, 25% draw, 24% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sao Paulo at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Line-ups
- 23Rafael
- 19Lucas Ramon
- 5Robert Arboleda
- 22D. Duarte
- 18Wendell
- 28Newton
- 29Pablo Maia
- 8Marcos Antonio
- 10Luciano
- 27Victor Sa
- 9Jonathan Calleri
- 31Carlos Coronel
- 20Buta
- 35Sabino
- 54Luis Osorio
- 12Iago Borduchi
- 80Cauly
- 94Danielzinho
- 48Djhordney
- 11Ferreira
- 1Pedro Morisco
- 2Tinga
- 23Tiago Coser
- 55Jacy
- 26Bruno Melo
- 21Thiago Santos
- 19S. Gomez
- 7J. Lavega
- 88Fernando Sobral
- 77Breno Lopes
- 32Pedro Rocha
- 13Keiller
- 3Maicon
- 6Felipe Jonatan
- 44Joao Pedro Chermont
- 4Rodrigo Moledo
- 36Vini Paulista
- 50Tissi
- 20Keno
- 28Fabinho
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
- L1-2Santos29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sao Paulo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sao Paulo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Coritiba failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
- 25 February 2026Coritiba 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 27 September 2023Sao Paulo 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 29 April 2023Coritiba 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 20 October 2022Sao Paulo 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 June 2022Coritiba 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 23 January 2021Sao Paulo 1–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Coritiba
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sao Paulo and Coritiba drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sao Paulo at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pablo Maia 43' for Sao Paulo, Tiago Coser 57' for Coritiba.