Sao Paulo
vs
Coritiba
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 48% Sao Paulo, 26% draw, 26% Coritiba — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.58, Coritiba 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sao Paulo
- L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Remo31 May 2026
- D1-1Botafogo23 May 2026
Coritiba
- W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 26 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sao Paulo
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Coritiba
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.65 for Coritiba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sao Paulo D-L-L-D-L; Coritiba L-L-D-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.11 for Coritiba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.78 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coritiba rate 0.70 and 1.07.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Coritiba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.11 for Coritiba. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.07 for Coritiba.