Mirassol vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Mirassol, 27% draw, 24% Flamengo — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 8DenilsonM
- 80WallissonM
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 95Edson CariocaF
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 17FernandinhoF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 18EliasD
- 33EduardoM
- 25Neto Moura
- 10Chico KimM
- 5JapaM
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 13DaniloD
- 4Leo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 20Lucas PaquetaM
- 7Luiz AraujoM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 19G. PlataM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 77J. GoesD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 8S. NiguezM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 99LorranM
Form going into Mirassol vs Flamengo
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Mirassol.
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Flamengo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Flamengo
- 6 December 2025Mirassol 3–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 9 August 2025Flamengo 2–1 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Flamengo
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo won 5–1 at Mirassol. The model had leaned towards a win for Mirassol at 49% and given a win for Flamengo 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Carrascal 22' for Flamengo, Luiz Araujo 53' for Flamengo, Pedro 56' for Flamengo, Pedro 66' for Flamengo, Samuel Lino 74' for Flamengo, Joao Victor 77' for Mirassol. On expected goals it finished 1.15–2.40.