Vitoria vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Vitoria, 26% draw, 52% Bahia — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bahia at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Bahia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BritezD
- 25CacaD
- 36Luan CandidoD
- 13RamonD
- 88Ze VitorM
- 15WalaceM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 71YuriG
- 83JamersonD
- 98MatheusinhoD
- 18KauanD
- 6Emmanuel MartinezM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 26EdenilsonM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 7MarinhoF
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 31R. GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 11RodrigoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VelizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 4KanuD
- 3M. MorenoD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 66Ze GuilhermeD
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 12Willian JoseF
- 15Michel AraujoM
Form going into Vitoria vs Bahia
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Bahia
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
- D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitoria had two goals or fewer.
- Bahia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bahia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bahia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Bahia
- 11 March 2026Bahia 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 7 March 2026Bahia 2–1 VitoriaBaiano - 1
- 25 January 2026Vitoria 0–1 BahiaBaiano - 1
- 17 October 2025Vitoria 2–1 BahiaSerie A
- 18 May 2025Bahia 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 23 March 2025Vitoria 1–1 BahiaBaiano - 1
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Bahia
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bahia won 2–0 at Vitoria. The model had made a win for Bahia its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Veliz 67' for Bahia, Jean Lucas 90' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 0.52–4.32.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.