23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Vitoria vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Barradao, Salvador
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Vitoria, 26% draw, 52% Bahia — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bahia at 52% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Vitoria vs Bahia

Vitoria

  • W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
  • L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026

Bahia

  • D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
  • D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
  • D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Vitoria2896132842-1433
5Bahia28121064335+846

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Bahia

  • 11 March 2026Bahia 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 7 March 2026Bahia 2–1 VitoriaBaiano - 1
  • 25 January 2026Vitoria 0–1 BahiaBaiano - 1
  • 17 October 2025Vitoria 2–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 18 May 2025Bahia 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 23 March 2025Vitoria 1–1 BahiaBaiano - 1

The full Vitoria vs Bahia record →

Leading scorers: Vitoria and Bahia

Vitoria

  • Rene9 goals1 assists

Bahia

  • Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.