Palmeiras
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 37% Palmeiras, 24% draw, 39% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.64, Vasco da Gama 1.69.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Palmeiras
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
- W1-0Chapecoense31 May 2026
- W3-0away to Flamengo24 May 2026
Vasco da Gama
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 July 2026
- L0-1Atletico Mineiro31 May 2026
- L0-3RB Bragantino24 May 2026
- L1-4away to Internacional16 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 47 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.8 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Palmeiras W-W-W-L-W; Vasco da Gama L-L-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Palmeiras and 1.69 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 0.76 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 1.03 and 1.14.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palmeiras, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 84.3% chance of the title and Vasco da Gama 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Palmeiras against 1.69 for Vasco da Gama. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.14 for Vasco da Gama.