Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Palmeiras, 20% draw, 29% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.96, 5.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GomezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 40Allan EliasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 56Arthur GabrielM
- 18MauricioF
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 42J. LopezF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 26MuriloD
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 12KhellvenD
- 32E. MartinezM
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 37Riquelme Fillipi
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 3Tche TcheM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GomezM
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 82Riquelme AvellarD
- 80B. AndreD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 9F. ColidioF
Form going into Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
- 12 March 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 1 October 2025Palmeiras 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 4 May 2025Vasco da Gama 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 22 September 2024Vasco da Gama 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 14 June 2024Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 27 August 2023Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras beat Vasco da Gama 4–1. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Lopez 47' for Palmeiras, Vitor Roque (penalty) 51' for Palmeiras, Mauricio 56' for Palmeiras, J. Lopez 89' for Palmeiras, F. Colidio 90' for Vasco da Gama. On expected goals it finished 1.74–2.15.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.