Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Palmeiras, 20% draw, 29% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.96, 5.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 51% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
Palmeiras
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Vasco da Gama
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
- 12 March 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 1 October 2025Palmeiras 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 4 May 2025Vasco da Gama 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 22 September 2024Vasco da Gama 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 14 June 2024Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 27 August 2023Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.